In December 2021, participants from the CSS Biobank, as well as the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and TwinsUK, were invited to complete an online survey. The aim was to understand how people were responding to new government guidelines introduced to limit the spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 in England.
These voluntary “Plan B” measures included working from home where possible and wearing face coverings in shops, but did not involve restrictions on socialising. The research, led by the University of Bristol, used survey responses and computer modelling to estimate the potential impact of these behaviours.
The model suggested that without any protective actions, each person with Omicron could infect 2.5 to 3.5 others. With reduced vaccine protection, this could have resulted in 55–60% of the population being infected and between 12,000 and 46,000 deaths. In reality, 15,208 deaths occurred during the wave. The study found that voluntary actions could reduce deaths by up to 24%.
The research was led by Professor Ellen Brooks-Pollock and researchers from the University of Bristol. The findings were considered by the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) in January 2022.
Brooks-Pollock, E., Northstone, K., Pellis, L., Scarabel, F., Thomas, A., Nixon, E., Matthews, D. A., Bowyer, V., Garcia, M. P., Steves, C. J., Timpson, N. J., & Danon, L. (2022). Impact of voluntary risk-mitigation behaviour on transmission of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in England. MedRxiv, 2022.01.26.22269540.
Brooks-Pollock, E., Northstone, K., Pellis, L., Scarabel, F., Thomas, A., Nixon, E., Matthews, D. A., Bowyer, V., Garcia, M. P., Steves, C. J., Timpson, N. J., & Danon, L. (2023). Voluntary risk mitigation behaviour can reduce impact of SARS-CoV-2: a real-time modelling study of the January 2022 Omicron wave in England. BMC Med, 21(1), 25.
Links to publications
Online journal article in MedRxiv (pre-print)